'Play safe' steps can save you money
The golden rules of form
It’s always been one of my key principles in racing to give the formlines a wide approach. That is, don’t be too guided by a horse’s last start performance.
You need to delve deeper. There is usually much more to consider than where a horse finished at its latest outing. And this applies very much so when a horse has raced poorly, or at least seemed to have raced poorly.
Often, when you dig deeper, you find that there was a reason, or reasons, for the horse’s failure. That’s why, when you see a “0” next to a horse’s name don’t let it always be a danger signal.
Psychologically, we are all mesmerised by those 1sts, 2nds and 3rds in a horse’s form, especially when they are listed for the latest run. That’s fair enough, but don’t let it become a habit! You owe it to yourself to ask questions about each runner and each performance, whether a 1, 2, 3 or an unplaced performance.
Most handicapping methods concern themselves with good rather than poor performances. This is a positive approach, I grant you, and I can’t really take issue with it except to issue the warning that thousands of races are won every season by horses who seemed to have performed badly at their latest starts.
In most instances, the wins are regarded as “surprises” and the dividends can be large.
Because there are so many winners in this category, the entire subject of a horse’s last start effort is always worthy of assessment.
In the process of this thinking, I’m going to take you through my own set of Golden Rules. These are factors you need to look at to satisfy yourself you have a strong “handle” on the race.
By the time you have gone through the Golden Rules, I can assure you that you’ll be aware of every facet of every runner’s form. It takes time, yes, but where money is concerned time should not be a concern. Put in the work, you will get the right results.
With the following Golden Rules, allot “ticks” for each factor as recommended.
THE GOLDEN RULES
• Is the horse the pre-post favourite? If so, 2 ticks. Is the horse on the 2nd, 3rd or 4th lines of betting? If so, 1 tick.
• If the horse is trained by one of the leading local trainers, 1 tick.
• If you regard the jockey as being a good and reliable rider then 1 tick.
• If the horse is being ridden today by a BETTER jockey than at its previous start, or by SENIOR rider replacing an apprentice, then 1 tick.
• If the horse won its last start, 2 ticks.
• If the horse was a winner last start, if it won very easily (by 2 or more lengths) then 1 tick.
• If the horse was beaten last start but picked up significant ground in the final 200m, then 1 tick.
• If the horse began badly at its latest start and then made up good ground past at least half the field in the home straight, then 1 tick.
• If you think the horse is capable of racing in the first four or five to the turn, then 1 tick.
• Did the horse finish closer to the winner at its last start than at its second-last start – if so, 1 tick.
• If you have seen favourable comments about the horse in the media, 1 tick.
• If the horse ran an even race last start, never more than 5 lengths from the leader, allot 1 tick.
• If the horse has run very well before at the current track (winner, or close-up placegetter), 1 tick.
• If you consider the horse’s form is tapering off (worsening) over its last three starts, deduct 2 ticks.
• Was there a valid and reasonable excuse for the horse’s last start beaten performance? If so, 1 tick.
• If the horse’s last start was between 15 and 21 days ago, 1 tick.
• If the horse’s last start performance was between eight and 14 days ago, 2 ticks.
• If the horse’s last start was within the previous seven days, 3 ticks.
• If the horse has had three or more runs since a a spell, 1 tick.
• If you think the horse is capable of successfully carrying the weight it has been given in the current race, 1 tick.
• If the horse is a winner over the distance of the current race (allow 50m to 75m either side), 1 tick.
• Has the horse run 2nd, 3rd or 4th over today’s distance and WITHIN 3 lengths of the winner? If yes, 1 tick.
• Is the horse racing in the same class of races at its previous start? If so, 1 tick.
• Is the horse down in class? If so, 2 ticks.
• If the horse has previously won in the same class, or higher class, then 2 ticks.
• If the horse has run 2nd, 3rd or 4th (within 3 lengths of the winner) in the same or higher class, then 1 tick.
• If the horse has a win strike rate of 25 per cent or more, 1 tick.
• If the horse has run placings in 60 per cent or more of its career starts, 1 tick.
• If the horse can handle prevailing track conditions, 1 tick for good to dead, 2 ticks for slow or heavy.
• If the horse is starting from what you consider is a good barrier position, 1 tick.
Feel daunted by the prospect of putting so much energy into form analysis? I suppose some of you will but it’s not as awesome a task as it might seem.
You are not going to be checking every race on the card, are you? I would not recommend such an approach. Usually, I find only three races, on average, are worth betting on.
Throw out those races where the form is a bit of a jumble, and races with lots of first starters. Ignore the weaker races. Concentrate on the best races on the card.
If you want to cut corners (not really advisable) you could limit your analysis to six or seven starters only, perhaps those at the top of the betting market. Most winners come from this range of runners.
However, the risk you run in cutting corners is that just might miss a big-priced winner who could’ve been found had you done the full analysis. But that’s up to you. You may feel the time saved is worth the risk.
Once you have tested a field of runners using my Golden Rules you should be completely satisfied you have gone a long way to correctly analysing the race. Add up those ticks to see which runners have the most.
Concentrate on them. Look at their form again. Think about it. Weigh up the options.
Don’t forget that the higher number of ticks a horse has the better its prospects should be. That’s why you put the field through such a rigorous examination.
Of course, you have the choice of simply accepting what the Golden Rules analysis throws up. If a horse has, say, 22 ticks, and has the biggest total of ticks, then it becomes the #1 pick in the race. Simple as that.
Also, remember that the better the class of race the more likely it is you will secure a consistent and winning outcome. Class is all important.
Many old-time professionals, like Eric Connolly, were great believers in the ticks and crosses approach. They knew what they were doing. And even in today’s computerised world, the simpl “tick, tick” can prove just as effective a winner finder as any other approach!
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