Inside Mail 23rd January, 2009

Welcome to my newsletter......

I've had a good break from my news letter "Inside mail" and found some more information to help you become a more sucessful punter.There are some interesting racing this long week and as some of the autum stars warm up. I've also organised a join up deal with tou from IAS Bet, so act quickly it's only for the first 20 people.

I've got a good thing at Eagle farm tomorrow but If your looking for tomorrow's free tip see below....

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***Latest News***

Mind Your Head to get rare visit to racetrack at Moonee Valley

Rain wouldn't worry O'Shea with At My Command Fyfe aiming for 2010 return to riding

Free Tip
Tomorrow's Free Tip is Randwick Race 8-5 Anatomica
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Video Reviews By Paul Joice (Racenet)

Sydney by Paul Joice Canterbury 15/1/09 Fraoch – Lightly raced Viscount four-year-old mare from the Snowden yard. Restrained from the outside gate to settle last she never had a chance once the leader got her own way in front. It was follow-the-leader from the bend but Fraoche worked clear between the 250-150m before hitting the line with genuine intent. Follow. Rosehill 17/1/09 Metal Bender – Arguably the run of the day with this week’s other blackbook entry likely to be the runner punters would argue over. Totally unsuited first-up in the small field at 1400m when the pace was farcical mid-stages. The racefit leader Gold Water pinched a break on the turn and shook off all challengers. Metal Bender charged out of the pace and made a good first of it in finishing second. Sectionals were outstanding (see below). Current record (3:2-1-0). A must for the blackbook. More Joyous – Arguably the run of the day. Debuted off only one trial and missed the kick two lengths in the 1100m dash. Quickly mustered speed thanks to the urgings of Nash Rawiller and was soon camped outside the leader. Took control at the 300m before exploding away from her rivals. Nash eased her down once he’d lost sight of them behind so she could have won by further. Not only a genuine Slipper contender but a worthy Slipper favourite. Melbourne by Brad Waters FLEMINGTON 17/1/09 MISS O’BRIEN – Beautifully bred filly (Fasnet Rock x Yvonne) trained by David Hayes. She settled right behind the speed in a slowly-run two-year-old affair and was left slightly flat-footed when the field sprinted at the 400 metres. Once clear, Miss O’Brien charged home while racing very greenly to just miss second place behind Tariks. She will win races in her career and looks a definite Sires Produce prospect. BOOGALOO – Settled back in the field in a classy field at Flemington before being held up until the 300 metre mark. Once clear, this daughter of Encosta de Lago ran home stoutly for second and with a touch of luck could have won the race. She improves with every start and will continue to improve. A graduation to stakes class is not beyond her. TURQUIA – This Robert Smerdon-trained filly has taken an eternity to come to hand this time in but has relished being stepped up to 1400 metres at her last two starts. Both of those run have contained plenty of merit, racing wide before just failing to run down Marchelle Belle on New Year’s Day. Last start, Turquia sustained a long run around the field and kept chasing honestly behind Fair Deal on Saturday. Perhaps a step to the mile and a cosier run will see this daughter of Estambul salute the judge at odds. Click here to Blackbook

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Saturdat's Racing

VIC - Sandown-Lakeside, Moe NSW - Randwick, Kembla Grange, Wellington QLD - Eagle Farm, Gold Coast, Toowoomba SA - Morphettville WA - Ascot

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Let me know what you think of this service via admin@ex-jockeymail.com. If there is something you think we should add to the site, remove from the site or simply anything we can do to make it better we would love to know.

Post Mortem January 19, 2009

Post Mortem January 19, 2009
A lot better week this week after a dismal one last week, it only goes to highlight the ups and downs and racing and the importance of having a steady head and a good plan.

January 14, 2009

Sandown Race 3-5 NUCLEAR FORCE 1st $4.40-$1.60
Sat 2nd after jumping well, looked to have all the rest struggling at the 400m. Kicked away at the 300m and won convincingly.

Eagle Farm Race 3-1 SYDNEY OR THE BUSH unplaced
Give a great ride by Glen, running 5/6 the fence in a solid pace, under pressure on the turn. Taken to the outside but didn't run on..)(Stewards Report) Approaching the 200m, ARIZONA SUNSET (M. Radecker) shifted in and bumped SYDNEY OR THE BUSH (G. Colless). A short distance later, ARIZONA SUNSET was crowded for room between MR NICHOLAS and SYDNEY OR THE BUSH (G. Colless), which shifted out.

January 16, 2009
Mornington Race 6-4 KUDETA (Best Bet) 1ST $3.50- $1.60
Got back near last in a fast pace, ridden hard around the turn and under the whip. He wanted to run around in the straight under pressure, however still knuckled down to get to the line and win.(He' got potential this fellow.)(Stewards Report) Kudeta jumped away awkwardly, shifted out and made contact with Honour Winna.


January 17, 2009
Eagle Farm Race 2-4


PENTACITY 2nd $2.00
Ridden more aggressively by Jason up running 4th/5th early, in a moderate speed. Jason bought her to the outside in the straight and looked all over the winner, when the class horse with no weight edged her out. (game effort)


Eagle Farm Race 4-5 UGLY BETTY (Best Bet) 1st $3.60-$1.90
Sat midfield on the fence, in a solid pace made ground quickly on the turn and was absolutely bolting,Brad let her go and it was all over ,bar the shouting. (too good for these)

Melbourne Race 8-2 VIALLICO Unplaced
Jumped well and got to second place, however over racing and running himself into the ground .Settled after about 600m. He went up to the leader in the straight and then weakened, the early effort took it's toll.

Rosehill Race 4-3 EQUABLE 1st $4.90-$1.60
Got further back than expected in a solid pace, made easy ground on the turn and really put in, down the straight to over haul the leaders. (He was overdue for a win this bloke)

'Win or Not to Win' Debate Placing Your Money By Mr Money

A question that pops up repeatedly is whether it’s better to bet for a win, a place or each way.
I decided some years ago that place betting was not profitable. At least, not when I used my own selection methods. Even with an 82 per cent strike rate over a period of time, I still managed to lose money on place betting.

Using tried and trusted selection methods, most systems will lean towards picking horses that are first, second or third favourite. In most cases, this will mean lower dividends.
However, I’m against making that sort of general statement and prefer to look at actual figures.
I recently noted down win and place dividends for a Saturday and sorted the win dividends into nine columns. These were headed $1 to $1.90, $2 to $2.90, $3 to $3.90 and so on up to $9 to $9.90. I then jotted down the equivalent place dividends in these columns, added them up and divided by how many there were to find an average.

This turned out to be an interesting exercise. There were six winners that paid between $1.00 and $1.90 and the total place dividends added up to $7.70. Therefore, the average place dividend was $1.28.
won’t bore you with all the figure work for the other eight columns but will just give you their average place dividends.
Just bear in mind that the following figures are only one day’s results. Over a larger number of samples, the average will most likely vary.

$2 to $2.90 = $1.39 $3 to $3.90 = $1.53 $4 to $4.90 = $1.76 $5 to $5.90 = $2.22 $6 to $6.90 = $2.37 $7 to $7.90 = $2.55 $8 to $8.90 = $2.35 $9 to $9.90 = $2.88

It’s often said that favourites win around 30 per cent of races so let’s see how close that figure is to reality. On Saturday, February 16, 2008, there were 89 races in Australia of which favourites won 25, which equates to 28 per cent, which is not too far off the mark. They ran second in 14 races, third in 19 races and lost 31.
The average win dividend was $2.65 and the average place dividend was $1.46. Let’s assume that you have decided to bet on 10 favourites. The worst case scenario is that they are in the 31 that lost. Best case is that they all won.
I’m now going to compare win betting, place betting and each way betting with the worst case scenario first. At $1 to win or place, you’d have lost $10 in either case. Each way betting at $1 each way would have cost you $20 or if you had $1 to win and $4 a place, you would have lost $50.
Now, let’s take a look at the best case. If all of your $1 win bets won, you would have got back $26.50 for your $10 giving you a profit of $16.50. This means a profit on turnover of 165 per cent. Had you bet for a place only, you would have had a return of $14.60 for a $4.60 profit and a POT of 46 per cent.
If you had bet $1 each way and they had all won, you would have got back $41.10 for your outlay of $20 giving a profit of $21.10. This means a POT of 105.5 per cent. Had you chosen to bet $1 to win and $4 for a place, your return would have been $84.90 for an outlay of $50. This gives a profit of $34.90 and a POT of 69.8 per cent.
These figures show win betting gives a higher POT than each way betting. Your $1 E/W profit of $21.10 could have been doubled if the dollar that you bet for a place had been added to the win bet. Your total outlay for the race would have still been the same, but your win profit would have been doubled.

What if none of them had won but all were placed. The win bets would have lost you $10. Place betting would have seen you collect $14.60, for a profit of $4.60 and a POT of 46 per cent. $1 each way would have seen you outlay $20 and get back only $14.60 – meaning that you still managed to lose $5.40.

The final scenario for each way betting is $1 to win and $4 a place. For an outlay of $50, were they all placed you would have collected $58.40 for a profit of $8.40 and a POT of 16.8 per cent. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see from these figures that each way betting is not as profitable as putting the total amount of your each way bet on for a win.
Somewhere between these two extremes will be the likely outcome. I hope these examples have helped you come to a decision about which betting method you would feel more comfortable with. Good luck.

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Post Mortem 12th January, 2009

Post Mortem 12th January, 2009

 Sorry forgot to send this report last week.

January 7, 2009
Sandown Race 5-3 KUDETA (Best Bet)Unplaced

Got running 7th on the fence, in a solid speed coming around the turn never looked like getting out all the way down the straight. went to the line hard held, we'll be on this fellow next start.

Randwick Race 7-2 GURU Unplaced

Had a good run 4th the fence, however in hindsight, he was probably to close to the speed. Made his run between the leaders and didn't finish it off.

January 10, 2009

Caulfield Race 4-1 CROWN RUBY (Best Bet) Unplaced

Given every hope by Shane, 5th the fence just behind the speed. Held up momenterly. when they sprinted didn't sprint with them, not good enough.

Ipswich Race 7-1 BEARTRACKER 2nd $1.50

Sat midfield 3 wide with no cover, got into 2 wide position in the back straight. made ground on the turn and to the line ,however never really threatened.

Rosehill Race 9-4 RUBINDA Unplaced

Got back to last and it looked to be a solid tempo, under presure on the turn, and never did a thing in the straight, disapointing.