16/06/08 Post Mortem
I can understand that everyone is are a bit anxious with the amount of unplaced selections at the moment
There are so many variables that need to be taken into consideration. However I don’t want to give you excuses, I’d like to help you to become a more complete punter. So from a punting perspective how can we identify horses likely to relish the heavy going and those that will struggle? A number of key factors need to be considered:
Exposed wet-track form
While a horse’s previous Win and Place record on wet tracks is a good indicator for today’s race, it should not be taken solely at face value. As a serious punter you should also take the time to assess the class, distance and suitability of these races. For example a horse might have started three times on wet tracks and been unplaced each time, giving you the initial impression that it doesn’t handle heavy going. But if the horse is a stayer and the unplaced efforts were in good-class races over unsuitably short distances, you might have a different perspective on it’s ability to handle wet tracks.
In contrast, just because a horse has won on wet ground doesn’t necessarily mean you can classify it as a wet-tracker. Rather it may have had a substantial class edge over it’s rivals and won despite the wet track, rather than because of it. For example the 1 start / 1 win record on a heavy track may have been a narrow maiden win 12 months ago against substandard opposition.
Jockey
A firm track normally means less variables and therefore narrower decision-making skills required by the jockey, whereas a wet track often increases the importance of having a good jockey on board. The relative importance of a jockey’s impact in assessing a horse’s overall winning chance can at times be over-rated, but when the going gets wet the good jockeys get going. Do you have to be on-pace from the start, or have the back markers been getting home OK? Should you ‘cuddle’ the horse until the final furlong, or adopt a catch-me-if-you-can policy? Have the track conditions changed substantially throughout the day? Should you track wide in search of better going, or save ground by hugging the rail?
Fitness
Unfit horses won’t win in heavy going so you should exercise extreme caution and avoid horses that are not at peak fitness. If you are backing a horse that is racing first or second up from a spell you need to be convinced that it has the fitness to finish the race off well.
Racing pattern/track bias
Track bias is far more likely to rear it’s ugly head on rain-affected going. This bias will most often favour leaders, so be wary if your horse is a back marker as it can be very difficult to make ground in heavy going. There are exceptions to every rule though and after a few races the inside of the track can become quite cut up, leaving the middle to outside of the track as the faster going.
Breeding
A horse’s breeding can offer a strong indication of whether it will be able to handle the track. For example progeny of sires such as Snippets, Palace Music, Woodman, Bletchingly, Zabeel and Mr Prospector are known to revel in heavy going whereas the progeny of Octagonal, Rory’s Jester, Marscay and Grand Lodge tend to struggle in the wet.
Rain-affected tracks require a unique approach, but if you combine detailed form analysis with the discipline to be selective it is still possible to identify profitable punting opportunities.
09/06/08
Eagle Farm Race 5-9 COLONIAL LASS unplaced
Given a nice run 5th and never really threatened after they straightened faded in the straight
to Finnish well back.
Eagle Farm Race 6-4 VANDALO unplaced
Caught wide from awkward alley, which doesn't matter on wet tracks as much. Under pressure
coming to the turn and only plugged down the straight.(See stewards Report) When questioned regarding the performance of VANDALO, S. Arnold stated that, in his opinion, the slow tempo of the race did not suit the horse. He further added that he felt the horse may not have been entirely comfortable in today's track conditions. A post race veterinary examination of VANDALO revealed the gelding to have sustained a cut to the medial aspect of the near fore fetlock.
Randwick Race 7-8 ENZEDEX EAGLE 1st 2.90-$1.40
Got a nice run 5th the fence until the turn moved out 3 &4 wide and came with a strong run
to win going away.
11/06/08
Bendigo Race 5-7 ICY DOMAIN unplaced
Given a nice run 3rd the fence, under pressure on the turn and gave in quickly.(See stewards Report)
S. King rider of Icy Domain which performed below expectations could offer no explanation for the horse’s
poor performance today. A Veterinary examination of Icy Domain revealed no abnormalities.
Gawler Race 6-5 HOTDEAL unplaced
Showed pace and got a good run once again stopped bad.
14/06/08
Sandown Race 1-2 TAN TAT JET 1st $1.80-$1.30
Sat 4th and over raced early, when the paced slowed at the 700m race 3 wide and even wider on the turn
looked like he had enough at the 300m but fort on strong to just win.
Sandown Race 8-7 KINDRATE unplaced
Given the gun run 4th the fence, and came inside the leaders on the turn. However at the 200m stopped bad
to run unplaced.
Randwick Race 4-1 STAR OF CROWN unplaced
Trapped wide early and went back to get in, then the speed slowed. He was
close enough on the turn but was out sprinted in the straight.
Randwick Race 5-4 CAUSEYACAN unplaced
I expected him to be closer in the small field, however got back to near last. he was close enough on the turn
wanted to run around in the straight very disappointing.(See stewards Report)
When questioned, T Clark, rider of Causeyacan stated
that, on entering the straight, the gelding ran out and that he had responded by pulling his whip
through into his left hand. He added, Causeyacan continued to lay out and did not respond to his
riding in the straight and, in his opinion, Causeyacan had felt flat and may have come to the end of
its preparation. Stable representative, Mrs J. Moses, agreed that Causeyacan, which was backing
up from a win on a heavy track at Canterbury on 4 June 2008, may be feeling the effects of recent
racing. The Inquiry was adjourned so that trainer Mr K. Moses can be interviewed. A post race
Gold Coast Race 5-7 PRINCE CASH unplaced
got a good run 4th one out and looked to be a danger on the turn. However was out classed.
Not good enough, watch for at the northern rivers.
Cheltenham Race 8-7 LARS BOY Unplaced
Got back to second last and came wide on the turn, made some ground, but never going to win.
Raced like a plugger, will win one over further.
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